Market Analysis Initiative for FAS, part 3

Simulation co-author – Esse Evbuomwan, PhD candidate at Washington University in St Louis)


Simulation Objective:

Forecast Future Demand

Associated Simulation Library:

Background

Market Analysis is the process by which companies gather the data and insights to answer questions about market need, feasibility and profitability. It also helps to provide a data driven approach to decision making.

In Part 3, you’ll be using the data you’ve collected and analyzed to project market growth and estimate demand for the proposed products.. This step supports investment decisions and production planning for your company.

Market forecasting is the process of estimating future demand, sales, or trends within a specific market using historical data, data from market research and predictive models. It helps businesses anticipate how a product or service might perform under different conditions and informs critical decisions such as resource allocation, production planning, pricing, and go-to-market strategy.

Forecasting is not just a projection, it takes the insights gained from identifying customer demand, competitor positioning, and environmental trends, and transforms them into actionable predictions. Whether launching a new product or expanding into new regions, having a reliable forecast enables teams to minimize risk and capitalize on growth opportunities with greater confidence.

Think of market forecasting like knowing how much money you’ll need to complete all the experiments for a publication. You don't just throw reagents together for one PCR and hope for the best. You begin with estimating the number of assays and repetitions, your reagents, and time. This ensures you have resources to successfully complete your project.

Similarly, in business, forecasting takes what you know: sales history, market trends, customer insights, and uses the data to predict the future. Just as a failed PCR run can waste time and resources, a poor forecast can lead to overproduction, stockouts, or missed opportunities. But when done right, both give you the clarity needed to move forward with precision.

See part 1, on identifying data sources, data quality and doing research >

See part 2, on environmental assessment, market and customer segmentation >

The Process

This job sim focuses on steps 6.

  • Set a SMART goal that clearly states what product or service you aim to evaluate for local manufacturing, ensuring that your research is focused on meeting community needs and supporting your biomanufacturing business objectives.

  • Identify primary sources (such as interviews with local professors or surveys of healthcare labs) and secondary sources (government reports, international databases) that provide insights into demand, supply chain gaps, and product needs for biomanufacturing. Evaluating data source quality is a key part of this step.

  • Evaluate existing suppliers and competitors in the region, as well as external factors like regulations, trade policies, and infrastructure challenges that could affect your business. Use SWOT and PEST analyses to structure your assessment.

  • Analyze the data to uncover unmet needs, emerging trends, and obstacles in the lab and healthcare sectors that your biomanufacturing company could address. This step ensures that your offerings are relevant and impactful.

  • Based on your research, identify the specific customer groups (e.g. academic labs, hospitals, or diagnostic centers) that would most benefit from your locally manufactured products. Understanding their preferences will help you develop tailored solutions.

  • Use your data to project market growth and estimate demand for the proposed products. This step supports investment decisions and production planning for your company.

  • Prepare a clear, concise summary of your market analysis findings, including key insights, recommendations, and supporting visuals to share with potential investors, partners, or your startup team. This communication is essential for aligning your team and building support for your biomanufacturing venture.

Resources

The Exercise

You are a member of the Future African Scientist (FAS) working towards launching a biomanufacturing company. You want to determine what products or services will best serve prospective customers in specified regions.

*For this job sim you will complete steps 6 and 7 of the Process (outlined above). For other steps in the Process, see Part 1 and Part 2.

You've already gathered market data, identified unmet needs, and analyzed customer segments and environmental factors. Now, you must use that information to estimate future market potential and effectively communicate your findings to key decision-makers who could fund or support your venture.

Your goal in this simulation is develop market forecasts and projections. You’ll complete one key tasks:

  • Estimate future demand and market size for your proposed product or service

Task 8- Estimate future demand and market size for your proposed product or service

(*note: you’re starting at Task #8, because Task 1-7 are outlined in Parts 1 & 2. This is a continuation of those job sims)

Forecasting involves using the trends and data you've collected to estimate how the market for your product will evolve over time. Your goal is to support investment and production planning by showing the future potential of your idea.

Questions to Answer:

  • Based on my data, how many units of my target product could be sold locally each year?

  • What would be a realistic price per unit?

  • How much do my competitors sell their product?

  • What is the estimated revenue over the next 3–5 years?

  • What costs would be involved in manufacturing the product locally?

  • Will this venture likely be profitable?

Resources to Help You:

Deliverables

Task 8

A simple 3–5 year market projection table showing estimated demand, pricing, revenue, and production costs. Include a brief narrative that explains your assumptions and whether local manufacturing appears financially viable

Additional Tasks

A professional in the field of market research may also perform:

  • Presentations to business partners and scientists

  • Conduct feasibility studies

  • Develop data collection tools: design surveys, questionnaires, or interview guides to gather targeted information from stakeholders.

  • Create budget and analyze cost: estimate the financial requirements and ROI of potential market opportunities.

  • Conduct scenario planning: develop best-case, worst-case, and most-likely market scenarios to inform strategic decisions.

Skills Used to Perform this Task

  • Written communication: clear and concise writing; technical writing

  • Forecasting and Financial Estimation: Translating market data into demand, pricing, and revenue projections

  • Critical Thinking: Evaluating assumptions, choosing reasonable forecasting timeframes, and assessing the credibility of data sources.

  • Data Interpretation: Synthesizing insights from primary (interviews, surveys) and secondary (industry reports, databases) sources to inform projections.

Skills Used in the Field

  • Broad technical expertise (STEM field)

  • Critical/analytical thinking

  • Project management

  • Communicating & relationship-building with clients

  • Presentation skills

  • Time and project management

  • Strategic thinking

  • Stakeholder engagement

  • Effective writing for technical and non-technical audiences